ASTRAL Projections … ok not really

Posted: February 15, 2017 by souldysfunction in General Sports Rant
Tags: , , , , , , ,

Lets come up with a completely non mathematical equation to pick the up coming baseball season. Yes I know PECOTA came out this past week and everyone is totally up in arms about what it says, but I am not going to even go there.

The thing about projections is it never takes into account in season trades, injuries, rookies, semi pseudo rebuilding, and Owners that give no more effort then my toddler when it comes to eating. That being said I’m going to use my own brain power and anti-math to pick the upcoming season, just know this will end up bad… probably.

For the most part people think that the Cubs are bound to make it back to World Series, and that is a pretty safe bet. By pretty safe bet I mean it is like throwing a penny into a swimming pool, you aren’t likely to miss.

Other thoughts are that Boston is primed to be the other side of that WS, being young and talented. Kinda sounds like Chicago doesn’t it?

What should I call my projections? It has to be something more catchy then PECOTA which does not roll of the tongue easily. Let’s see……

  • Dysfunctional Projections – Nah too long and I cant come up with words to make it an acronym
  • ANTI-MATH Projections – No nothing that has ‘Anti’ in it someone is bound to complain
  • PIRATE Projections – Plausible Idiosyncratic Ranked Talent Estimation Projections.  YUP That’s the one.

So here it is the first annual 60 Rows Up PIRATE Projections!

Let’s start in my favorite teams division because it is my article! HAH

NL WEST

It is really hard to pick against the Dodgers. Year after year they have a stacked team with some great young talent waiting in the wings. I think this year they continue their dominance of the division, yeah I know going with the flow here. Here is where I change a bit however. I think the Rockies are way under rated this season especially if they stay healthy even with the ballpark issues they normally encounter. The Giants and the Diamondbacks follow up a bit behind because I still don’t see Arizona coming together and figuring it out this season. San Fran I think is to old for their own good this season, as a majority I think their players while talented are on the edge of their own twilight. My beloved Padres stay down at the bottom unfortunately, while they have a lot of talented prospects I don’t think this is the year to make it up the rankings.

Dodgers, Rockies, Giants, Diamondbacks, Padres

NL EAST

Is this the season the Nationals FINALLY put it together? Can the Mets stay healthy enough to last all the way to the playoffs? I dunno honestly. Injuries are that one thing you can’t project or expect and they took a serious bite out of both teams last season. Going with my gut here I am picking the Mets to win the division with the Nationals right behind them. I just don’t believe in Dusty Baker, I’ve lived in Cincinnati to long to trust his decisions. I also don’t think the Nationals have enough starting pitching to hold up all year. After that I think the Braves have made enough moves to stay competitive and be over .500 for the season. Follow that up with the Phillies and then the maybe for sale Marlins.

Mets, Nationals, Braves, Phillies, Marlins

NL CENTRAL

Cubs, Cubs, Cubs right? I don’t honestly think so. While they are a very talented young team with a historic year last year looking at the big picture makes me think that, while they might be the best team in the division, they could be in for a rougher year. Look at Joe Maddon’s teams in the past, he only made it one time to the Pennant before this last World Series win. He is a Mad Wizard but that doesn’t give him the throne. Saying all that there really is not much competition talent wise in this division for the Cubies. I’m thinking Cubs win the division followed by the Cardinals, much closer this year then last. Then the Brewers, you didn’t see that coming did you. For some reason I like the Brewers this season no they aren’t going to win tons but I do think they win enough to be ahead of the Pirates and Reds.

Cubs, Cardinals, Brewers, Pirates, Reds

AL WEST

Rangers, Astros?… Rangers, Astros?… Rangers, Mariners, Astros?… This division is always a interesting division to look at. Astros youth is incredible so everyone looks at them first, but the Rangers are one of those teams that quietly wins. Then you have the Mariners that seemingly live on Mars because no one gives them any attention at all. What does my Anti-Math tell me about this division? I think the Astros win this division, that talent is crazy especially because all the guys they can bring up. If you have read this blog before you know I think Beltre is one of my absolute favorite players so it kind of pains me to not pick the Rangers but I just think that the it is the Astros year this time. Then Mariners, but I do think those three teams could easily swap places so they are all going to be around the same win/loss totals. After that the Angels who have no starting pitching and the Athletics who I think are still trying to figure out how to retool and rebuild now a days.

Astros, Rangers, Mariners, Angels, Athletics

AL EAST

The Division of DEATH!@ These guys beat the hell out of each other every year. Everyone is picking Boston to win it and project the Orioles to be bottom feeders. Why? Have they not met Buck Showalter? Yes I do think the Post-Papi Red Sox are a damn good team, but I definitely don’t think the Orioles are near the bottom. How much will Post-Papi affect the Sox is really hard to tell. This is a younger team now and that voice and just plain presence in the locker room could really be a bigger loss then people are thinking. I am probably alone in this but I am picking the Orioles to win this division. Don’t throw things at your screen please. I just think that if the Red Sox hit a slump or injuries that the effect of not having Papi in the clubhouse could really hurt them. I do think they will do well just not as well as the Orioles. After that it’s the Blue Jays who while they have a great pitching staff I don’t know that no Edwin and the possibility that Bautista finally breaks down makes me think they will be over .500 but not enough to over take the Sox and Orioles. After that its the ‘We want to Win and Rebuild’ Yankees. They have a lot of young players that looked great at the end of the last season but I don’t think they will live up to expectations in their first full season. Then the Rays… yeah I don’t have much hope for them.

Orioles, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Yankees, Rays

AL CENTRAL

Out of all the divisions this one gave me the biggest pause. I think all of these teams are improved and could make waves. Saying that I think Tito will get his Indians back to the promised land. I under estimated them to much last season and really don’t want to do that again. Now Tigers, Royals, White Sox…. damn I think they could all freaking tie I swear. However you aren’t reading this to have me do that. I’m going to pick the White Sox, then Tigers, then Royals. Most people always under value the heart of the Royals and I might be doing that here as well. After that the Twins bring up the rear, while they are much better then last season I don’t think they will get good enough fast enough for this season.

Indians, White Sox, Tigers, Royals, Twins

There you have it my PIRATE predictions for the 2017 baseball season. I probably wont be right but that’s just how it goes most times.

SD Signature

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